Hurricane John August/September 2006
Summary
This storm traveled up the peninsular of Baja California starting around Friday 1 September and died offshore from San Felipe during the Tuesday/Wednesday (5/6 September) period. Extensive damage was caused to the east of San Jose del Cabo and also the town of Mulege was hit very hard. Most of the damage to the northern part of the peninsular was caused by very heavy rain.
Wednesday, 6 September,7 a.m. Still very humid, but only small, cumulous clouds to the south and east of us, and a couple over the mountains to our west at this moment. Most of the cloud activity has long gone to Mainland Mexico, leaving us to our normal, September weather. Bright sunshine has taken over for the most part. It should be a little cooler today and tomorrow in town according to our forcasts. Don't miss those telling pictures on yesterday's report. st
Tuesday, 5 September,2 p.m. Clear around town, no more rain falling although there are still big clouds visible on the horizon to the south. Winds calm 93 F in town. To see the damage, check here.
Noon - we have had 1.2 inches of rain between 10 and 11 a.m. My street flooded to a depth of about 6 inches, and I expect that most of the usual spots are impassable. Fortunately no wind at all and this is also way before high tide. Unfortunately the radar is showing another big blob of rain near Puertecitos at this time. This picture shows town emerging from the storm at around 11:15 a.m.
9:30 a.m.
The Yuma radar is showing the approach of the remnant storm from the south. Our skies are now mostly cloudy and I can see sheets of rain out over the sea.
The National Hurricane center issued this advisory at 8 a.m.:
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
400 AM PDT TUE SEP 5 2006
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
....
THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION JOHN ARE LOCATED OVER THE
NORTH-CENTRAL GULF OF CALIFORNIA. REGENERATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
7 a.m. Although we appear only on the tip of the residual cloud pattern of Tropical Storm John dark, ominous clouds still encircle the city with only a few patches overhead. Will they dissappear, or will we get another puff of rain as they are dragged away from our area? Temperatures are greatfully, much lower. It will continue to stay muggy till at least the week end. Hope everyone else had a wonderful Labor Day Week-end, now behind us. st
Monday, 4 September, LABOR DAY 4:00 p.m.It took only an hour for that cloud to drop it's 3/16 inch load and pass on to the north of us before it dissipated. After that we had sunshine directly over us, dotted with a few white clouds. Then the circle again formed and before dark closed in there was again a 20% cloud cover over town; the rest was clear skies with an almost full moon. We do not know what the night will bring; winds, rain, or just a typical San Felipe star studded sky. st
Monday, 4 September, LABOR DAY 1:00 p.m. Look at that cloud dropping right down on our town. It poured. Something hit a transformer. Everyone in our block lost power for about 20 minutes. We apologize to everyone checking our site if they were not able to get on. st
12:17 a.m Here it comes!!!! The wind picked up dramatically, the skies closed in like we are in the center of a cloud, and the rain is just starting. st
11:30 a.m. Those skies that were dotted lightly with clouds to the south this morning are now heading up the highway in full force. Maybe we will have rain, as scheduled yesterday, at 11:p.m., this very evening. The rest of the circle seems to be closing in via a pattern of clouds dotting the overhead skies. Our temperature now reads 93.4 and our humidity has gone down to 41 %. Quite nice out there if you are looking for rain. st
Monday, 4 September, 7 a.m. LABOR DAY in the U.S. Our skies over San Felipe are mostly clear, however we are encircled with clouds seen over the mountains to our west, far to the south, and yes across the waters to mainland Mexico; just dark smudges to the north. We still have our arms open waiting for even a little of that rain, knowing that it is now just a weakening Tropical Storm John, stalled over the center of our peninsula in the mountains. With little breeze it is like the calm before the storm? st (Those clouds seen in our camcorder photo are really more to the mountains, with some clouds hovering over Machoro Hill to the north of town).
8 a.m. Here is the latest bulletin on the dying storm John. Most of the rain is drifting off to the northeast. There should be little impact on San Felipe today.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION JOHN DISCUSSION NUMBER 29
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112006
800 AM PDT MON SEP 04 2006 IT HAS BEEN AT LEAST A DAY SINCE A CLEAR CENTER HAS BEEN
DISCERNABLE...AND NOW THE CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE DECOUPLING AND
MOVING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OVER MAINLAND MEXICO AS THE CONVECTION
WEAKENS. GIVEN THIS LACK OF ORGANIZATION...THIS WILL BE THE LAST
ADVISORY ON JOHN. NIGHT-VIS IMAGERY SUGGESTS THE CENTER CONTINUES
MOVING ROUGHLY ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA...AND A
REMNANT LOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN THIS DIRECTION FOR THE NEXT
DAY OR SO BEFORE DISSIPATING COMPLETELY. MOISTURE FROM JOHN WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO
AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. PLEASE CONSULT STATEMENTS FROM
LOCAL WEATHER OFFICES FOR ANY RAINFALL OR FLOODING IMPACTS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 04/1500Z 29.2N 113.3W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
12HR VT 05/0000Z 29.9N 113.8W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
24HR VT 05/1200Z 30.6N 114.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT 06/0000Z...REMNANT LOW 
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN | The latest satellite visible image at 8 a.m. Monday is shown here 
|
Sunday, 3 September, 11 p.m update.
John is almost stationary in the mountains to our south. The latest bulletin from the National Hurricane Center indicates that he is weakening rapidly but dumping lots of rain. No rain is seen on the Yuma radar tonight and the infrared pictures (below) still show that the rain is drifting into mainland Mexico and the South-central USA.
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION JOHN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 27A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112006
1100 PM PDT SUN SEP 03 2006
...JOHN WEAKENING RAPIDLY...STILL PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS...
MOISTURE FROM JOHN WILL BE SPREADING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED
STATES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC
TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...
PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 1100 PM PDT...0600Z..THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION JOHN WAS
ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.0 WEST OR ABOUT
80 MILES...125 KM...NORTHWEST OF SANTA ROSALIA MEXICO.
THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN MOVING LITTLE DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS AND
LITTLE MOTION IS ANTICIPATED ON MONDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASE TO NEAR 30 MPH...50 KM/HR...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. JOHN WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE ON MONDAY.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM
TOTALS UP TO 18 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL BAJA
PENINSULA. NORTHWESTERN MEXICO COULD RECEIVE 3 TO 6 INCHES OF RAIN
WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 10 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN. MOISTURE FROM JOHN COULD HELP PRODUCE 1 TO 3 INCHES OF
RAIN OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES AND WESTERN TEXAS THROUGH
MONDAY.
REPEATING THE 1100 PM PDT POSITION...28.2 N...113.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NEARLY STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
200 AM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
TROPICAL DEPRESSION JOHN DISCUSSION NUMBER 27
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112006
800 PM PDT SUN SEP 03 2006
THE CIRCULATION CENTER REMAINS RATHER DIFFICULT TO FIND IN
CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS EVENING...IF IN FACT A CENTER
STILL EXISTS. ON THE OTHER HAND...A 2043Z AMSRE REVEALED A WEAK
SPIRAL RAIN BAND OUTLINING A POSSIBLE CIRCULATION ABOUT 50 MI
NORTHWEST OF SANTA ROSALIA MEXICO...WHICH IS JUST SOUTHEAST OF
WHERE JOHN SHOULD BE BASED ON AN EXTRAPOLATED 6 HOUR MOTION.
INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 30 KT WITH DISSIPATION LIKELY WITHIN
THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE SHIPS AND GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE.
BEST GUESS AT THE INITIAL MOTION IS ABOUT 330/6...BASED ON THE
AFOREMENTIONED EXTRAPOLATED DATA. A MAJORITY OF THE DYNAMICAL
MODELS INDICATE THAT JOHN WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
WITHIN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW OF THE LOW- TO MID TROPOSPHERIC HIGH OVER
MEXICO...WITH ALL INDICATING DISSIPATION IN 48 HOURS OR LESS OVER
THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE PENINSULA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
BASED ON A BLEND OF THE GLOBAL MODELS...QUITE SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS PACKAGE...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT NUDGE TO THE EAST BEYOND 24
HOURS TO MAINTAIN A MOTION PARALLEL TO THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE
MOUNTAIN RANGE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A VERY BROAD AREA OF
MID- TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND
THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. THEREFORE...SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
AMOUNTS IN THOSE PARTICULAR AREAS REMAIN A THREAT.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 04/0300Z 28.2N 113.1W 30 KT
12HR VT 04/1200Z 29.0N 113.6W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
24HR VT 05/0000Z 29.7N 114.4W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT 05/1200Z 30.7N 115.1W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 06/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH
7 p.m. Update
The storm has weakened and maximum winds are now only around 35 mph. This classifies John as a tropical depression instead of a storm. We shall see how the system moves overnight and whether it will continue to threaten us with heavy rain. The 5 p.m summary from the NHC is shown below:
TROPICAL DEPRESSION JOHN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 26A...COR
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112006
500 PM PDT SUN SEP 03 2006
...CORRECTED HEADER....
...JOHN WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION....
AT 5 PM CDT...0000 UTC... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED
ALL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS.
MOISTURE FROM JOHN WILL BE SPREADING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED
STATES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC
TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...
PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 500 PM PDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JOHN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.9 WEST OR ABOUT 50
MILES... 80 KM...NORTHWEST OF SANTA ROSALIA MEXICO.
JOHN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR. ON THIS
TRACK...THE CENTER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR OR OVER BAJA
CALIFORNIA TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 35 MPH...55
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. FURTHER WEAKENING IS LIKELY...AND JOHN
COULD DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM
TOTALS UP TO 18 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL BAJA
PENINSULA. NORTHWESTERN MEXICO COULD RECEIVE 3 TO 6 INCHES OF RAIN
WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 10 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN. MOISTURE FROM JOHN COULD HELP PRODUCE 1 TO 3 INCHES OF
RAIN OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES AND WESTERN TEXAS THROUGH
MONDAY.
REPEATING THE 500 PM PDT POSITION...27.8 N...112.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 800 PM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH
4 p.m. Update
4 p.m. The storm track has been revised significantly to the east and it appears that the center of the circulation could even ride up along the east coast of the Baja peninsular. This could cause severe beach erosion and flooding of beachfront properties. Very high tides will occur this week starting on Tuesday around noon and repeating every 12 hours. Make all necessary preparations for a storm now. Our principal problem will not be the winds but the very heavy rain. If the storm slows down that means it will drop even more rain on a given area each hour compared to when it was moving rapidly. At this time the speed of forward motion has dropped to 6 mph from 7 mph two hours ago.
4 p.m. Yuma radar is now showing the first bands of rain coming up the Gulf. These are 200 miles south of Yuma, its limit of observation.
Here is the 2 p.m. bulletin followed by the 2 p.m. discussion:
TROPICAL STORM JOHN ADVISORY NUMBER 26
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112006
200 PM PDT SUN SEP 03 2006
...JOHN BARELY A TROPICAL STORM BUT STILL CAUSING HEAVY RAINS...
AT 2 PM PDT...2100 UTC... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING ON THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.
AT 2 PM PDT... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING ON THE EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SOUTH
OF MULEGE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST
COAST OF THE PENINSULA FROM BAHIA DE LOS ANGELES TO MULEGE. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MOISTURE FROM JOHN WILL BE SPREADING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED
STATES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC
TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...
PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 200 PM PDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JOHN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.7 WEST OR ABOUT 30
MILES... 50 KM...NORTHWEST OF SANTA ROSALIA MEXICO AND ABOUT 145
MILES...235 KM...EAST OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO.
JOHN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR. ON THIS
TRACK JOHN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA TODAY
AND TONIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...65
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. FURTHER WEAKENING IS LIKELY AND JOHN
SHOULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TONIGHT OR EARLY
TOMORROW.
JOHN IS A SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM
TOTALS UP TO 18 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL BAJA
PENINSULA. NORTHWESTERN MEXICO COULD RECEIVE 3 TO 6 INCHES OF RAIN
WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 10 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN. MOISTURE FROM JOHN COULD HELP PRODUCE 1 TO 3 INCHES OF
RAIN OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES AND WESTERN TEXAS THROUGH
MONDAY.
REPEATING THE 200 PM PDT POSITION...27.6 N...112.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 500 PM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800
PM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN
TROPICAL STORM JOHN DISCUSSION NUMBER 26
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112006
200 PM PDT SUN SEP 03 2006
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR... ALONG WITH THE HIGH TERRAIN IN CENTRAL BAJA
CALIFORNIA... IS DISRUPTING THE CIRCULATION OF THE CYCLONE.
EVIDENCE OF THIS IS DISPLAYED ON SATELLITE PICTURES WITH A
MIDDLE-LEVEL CENTER SEEN OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA NORTHEAST OF
THE APPARENT LOW-LEVEL CENTER. HOWEVER... EVEN WITH VISIBLE
IMAGES... THE EXACT CENTER OF JOHN IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE. SURFACE
WINDS AT SANTA ROSALIA HAVE SHIFTED FROM EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY
IN THE PAST 3 HOURS.. SO THE CENTER IS LIKELY WEST OF THAT
LOCATION. CONVECTION HAS BECOME RATHER DISORGANIZED IN THE PAST FEW
HOURS... AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS DECREASED TO 35 KT. THESE
WINDS ARE LIKELY CONFINED TO A SMALL AREA MOSTLY IN ONSHORE FLOW.
FURTHER WEAKENING SHOULD CONTINUE AND JOHN COULD DISSIPATE
TOMORROW.
BEST ESTIMATE IS THAT JOHN HAS SLOWED A LITTLE.. NOW 325/6. THIS
GENERAL TRACK SEEMS LIKELY AS LONG AS THE MIDDLE-LEVEL CENTER STAYS
SOMEWHAT COUPLED WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. IN GENERAL THE TRACK
GUIDANCE IS FARTHER TO THE NORTHEAST THAN 6 HOURS AGO. THE
GFDL/GFS KEEP SHIFTING WILDLY FROM A MORE WESTWARD TO NORTHWARD
TRACK WHILE THE MOST OTHER GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED A TOUCH TO THE RIGHT OF THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST... CLOSER TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. THERE PROBABLY
WON'T BE MUCH LEFT OF JOHN TOMORROW... AND THE MAIN THREAT WILL
CONTINUE TO BE VERY HEAVY RAIN THROUGHOUT CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA
AND NORTHWESTERN MEXICO... WITH SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS SPREADING INTO
THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES.
1 p.m. PDT update
In San Felipe we have clear skies and southerly winds at around 10-15 mph. The leading edge of the cloud from the storm is presently crossing the gulf at around 70 miles south of San Felipe (near Bahil San Luis Gonzaga). The main edge of the storm clouds are still around Isla Angel de la Guardia 145 miles south. You can see this situation in both the visible (left) and infra red (right) pictures taken at 1 p.m. Most of the storm activity and rain is spilling off to the northeast, over the sea and into mainland Mexico. Unfortunately, the Mexican radar station near Los Mochis seems to have stopped updating its picture so we do not have any current radar data to share with you. Nothing is yet showing up on the long range Yuma radar (which is good!)
Here is the 11 a.m bulletin from the NHC:
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM JOHN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 25A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112006
1100 AM PDT SUN SEP 03 2006
...JOHN CONTINUES TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE
PENINSULA FROM BAHIA DE LOS ANGELES TO LORETO AND FOR THE WEST
COAST OF THE PENINSULA FROM PUNTA EUGENIA TO PUNTA ABREOJOS. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN AND AROUND THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JOHN.
MOISTURE FROM JOHN WILL BE SPREADING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED
STATES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC
TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...
PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 1100 AM PDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JOHN WAS
ESTIMATED TO BE INLAND NEAR LATITUDE 27.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.6
WEST OR ABOUT 20 MILES... 30 KM... WEST OF SANTA ROSALIA MEXICO AND
ABOUT 155 MILES...250 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO.
JOHN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. ON THIS
TRACK JOHN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR OR OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA
TODAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS JOHN
CONTINUES TO INTERACT WITH LAND. JOHN COULD BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB...29.41 INCHES.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM
TOTALS UP TO 18 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL BAJA
PENINSULA. THE NORTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO COULD RECEIVE 3 TO 6
INCHES OF RAIN WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 10 INCHES. THESE
RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. MOISTURE FROM JOHN COULD HELP PRODUCE 1 TO 3
INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES AND WESTERN
TEXAS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
REPEATING THE 1100 AM PDT POSITION...27.3 N...112.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
200 PM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN
7 a.m. It is now just 'TROPICAL STORM JOHN' and is still heading north along the mountain ridge of the Baja Peninsula. Plenty of rain over the south-central area. Lingering moisture could still bring rain to San Felipe starting today through Tuesday. This morning is a typical Sunday, with some small, white clouds hanging around and a soft breeze fanning the trees. st
8 a.m. Here are the latest bulletins from the National Hurricane Service in Miami and information from the Mexican authorities:
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM JOHN ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112006
800 AM PDT SUN SEP 03 2006
...HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE THROUGHOUT CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA AND
NORTHWESTERN MEXICO...
...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES...
AT 8 AM PDT...1500 UTC... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING ON THE EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
SOUTH OF LORETO AND ON THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SOUTH OF
PUNTA ABREOJOS.
AT 8 AM PDT... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE TROPICAL
STORM WARNING ON THE EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTHWARD TO
BAHIA DE LOS ANGELES. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT
FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE PENINSULA FROM BAHIA DE LOS ANGELES TO
LORETO AND FOR THE WEST COAST OF THE PENINSULA FROM PUNTA EUGENIA
TO PUNTA ABREOJOS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN AND AROUND THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JOHN.
MOISTURE FROM JOHN IS SPREADING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO
YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 800 AM PDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JOHN WAS
LOCATED INLAND NEAR LATITUDE 27.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.5 WEST OR
ABOUT 20 MILES... 30 KM...SOUTHWEST OF SANTA ROSALIA MEXICO AND
ABOUT 165 MILES...270 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO.
JOHN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. ON THIS
TRACK JOHN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR OR OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA
TODAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE MEXICAN NAVY WEATHER STATION AT SANTA ROSALIA MEXICO
RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 39 MPH...63 KM/HR WITH GUSTS
TO 55 MPH... 88 KM/HR. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS AS JOHN CONTINUES TO INTERACT WITH LAND. JOHN COULD
BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 993 MB...29.32 INCHES.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM
TOTALS UP TO 18 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL BAJA
PENINSULA. THE NORTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO COULD RECEIVE 3 TO 6
INCHES OF RAIN WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 10 INCHES. THESE
RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. MOISTURE FROM JOHN COULD HELP PRODUCE 1 TO 3
INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES AND WESTERN
TEXAS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
REPEATING THE 800 AM PDT POSITION...27.1 N...112.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1100 AM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200
PM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN
 | The Sunday 8 a.m. Infra red photograph shows the bulk of the rain heading over the sea and into the mainland of Mexico. The problem is that this whole mess is slowly moving north and we can expect to see a similar picture on Monday morning but with the entire "red-purple" rain field just moved much closer to San Felipe. |
Saturday, 2 September, 11 p.m. John keeps going on the same northwesterly course - no turn to the left or right has occurred yet. It is going straight up the spine of the peninsular!
TROPICAL STORM JOHN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 23A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112006
1100 PM PDT SAT SEP 02 2006
...JOHN WEAKENING AS IT INTERACTS WITH MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE EAST COAST OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA TO SAN EVARISTO. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS EFFECT ALONG THE WEST COAST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA FROM PUNTA EUGENIA SOUTHWARD TO SANTA FE. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN AND NEAR THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...BAJA
CALIFORNIA....AND NORTHWESTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF JOHN.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 1100 PM PDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JOHN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.9 WEST OR ABOUT
35 MILES... 55 KM...WEST OF LORETO MEXICO AND ABOUT 115 MILES...
185 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PUNTA ABREOJOS MEXICO.
JOHN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF JOHN OVER OR NEAR THE
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA SUNDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS JOHN
INTERACTS WITH THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM
MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB...29.23 INCHES.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW NEAR THE PATH OF THE CENTER OF
THE HURRICANE.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM
TOTALS UP TO 18 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
BAJA PENINSULA. THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO FROM LA CRUZ TO GUAYMAS
COULD SEE 3 TO 6 INCHES OF RAIN WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 10
INCHES. THESE AMOUNTS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUDSLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
REPEATING THE 1100 PM PDT POSITION...26.0 N...111.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
200 AM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER RHOME/STEWART
8 p.m. A possibility still exists for John to re-enter the Sea of Cortez:
TROPICAL STORM JOHN DISCUSSION NUMBER 23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112006
800 PM PDT SAT SEP 02 2006
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM CIUDAD CONSTITUCION
SHOW THAT THE CENTER OF JOHN IS MOVING 320/7 OVER THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THE CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS DECREASED DURING
THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND ON THIS BASIS THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
LOWERED TO 50 KT.
JOHN IS ON THE WEST SIDE OF A MID/UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED
OVER NORTHERN MEXICO...WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING THE RIDGE
AMPLIFYING NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES AS A
SHORTWAVE RIDGE IN THE WESTERLIES MOVES THROUGH THAT AREA. THE GFS
AND ECMWF MODELS FORECAST THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE TO RAISE HEIGHTS OVER
THE SOUTHWESTERN U. S. ENOUGH TO TURN JOHN WESTWARD INTO THE
PACIFIC. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE UKMET AND THE NOGAPS SHOW ENOUGH
WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE TO ALLOW JOHN TO CONTINUE NORTHWARD INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THE MODELS AGREE THAT JOHN WILL
CONTINUE NORTHWESTWARD FOR 24 HR OR SO...WITH THE MAJOR DIVERGENCE
THEREAFTER. THE FORECAST TRACK CALLS FOR A GRADUAL WESTWARD TURN
IN BETWEEN THESE TWO EXTREMES...WITH A SLOWING OF THE FORWARD
MOTION OVER THE PACIFIC AFTER 36 HR. THE NEW TRACK IS AN UPDATE OF
THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND IS A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE MODEL
CONSENSUS. REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK...MIDDLE TO UPPER-LEVEL
MOISTURE FROM JOHN IS LIKELY TO ENHANCE RAINFALL IN THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST MONSOON AREAS.
JOHN SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS THE CENTER INTERACTS WITH THE
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...AND AS THE WESTERN SIDE OF
THE STORM OVER THE PACIFIC ENCOUNTERS PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATER.
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK IN THE PACIFIC
ARE NEAR OR BELOW 22C...SO WHAT IS LEFT OF THE CYCLONE SHOULD
WEAKEN QUICKLY. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR WEAKENING TO A
DEPRESSION BEFORE EMERGING INTO THE PACIFIC...THEN BECOMING A
NON-CONVECTIVE LOW BY 72 HR.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 03/0300Z 25.6N 111.7W 50 KT
12HR VT 03/1200Z 26.4N 112.5W 45 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 04/0000Z 27.4N 113.6W 35 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 04/1200Z 28.3N 114.6W 30 KT
48HR VT 05/0000Z 29.0N 115.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
72HR VT 06/0000Z 29.5N 117.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 07/0000Z 29.5N 119.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
4:00 p.m. Beautiful white clouds are pouring over the mountains. These do not look threatening at this time. We have strong, gusty, south winds reaching as high as 15-17 mph.and the waves still have some whitecaps. Our forecasts warn us of rains starting tomorrow. st
2:00 p.m. Large cumulonimbus clouds are building in the mountains to our west and also over the Sonora coast to the east. Hot and muggy.
5 p.m. The latest bulletin from NHC:
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM JOHN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 22A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112006
500 PM PDT SAT SEP 02 2006
...JOHN CONTINUES MOVING NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE EAST
COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA TO SAN
EVARISTO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG
THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM PUNTA EUGENIA SOUTHWARD
TO SANTA FE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN AND NEAR THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...BAJA
CALIFORNIA....AND NORTHWESTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF JOHN.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 500 PM PDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JOHN WAS
LOCATED BY RADAR AND SATELLITE NEAR LATITUDE 25.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE
111.5 WEST OR ABOUT 25 MILES...40 KM...NORTH-NORTHEAST OF CIUDAD
CONSTITUCION MEXICO AND ABOUT 50 MILES...80 KM...SOUTH OF LORETO
MEXICO.
JOHN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. ON THIS
TRACK JOHN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR OR OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA
TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE CONTINUED TO DECREASE AND ARE NOW NEAR
65 MPH...105 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. FURTHER WEAKENING IS
LIKELY AS JOHN INTERACTS WITH THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB...29.18 INCHES.
CIUDAD CONSTITUCION RECENTLY REPORTED A PRESSURE OF 990.4 MB...
29.25 INCHES.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW NEAR THE PATH OF THE CENTER OF
THE HURRICANE.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM
TOTALS UP TO 18 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
BAJA PENINSULA. THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO FROM LA CRUZ TO GUAYMAS
COULD SEE 3 TO 6 INCHES OF RAIN WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 10
INCHES. THESE AMOUNTS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUDSLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
REPEATING THE 500 PM PDT POSITION...25.3 N...111.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 800 PM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
11 a.m The latest bulletin from NHC:
BULLETIN
HURRICANE JOHN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 21A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112006
1100 AM PDT SAT SEP 02 2006
...JOHN PRODUCING TORRENTIAL RAINS OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT ALONG COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA FROM MULEGE SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST...AND FROM
PUNTA ABREOJOS SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST
OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTH OF MULEGE TO BAHIA SAN JUAN
BAUTISTA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WEST COAST OF THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTH OF PUNTA ABREOJOS TO PUNTA
EUGENIA...AND FOR THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM ALTATA TO
GUAYMAS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN AND NEAR THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...BAJA
CALIFORNIA....AND NORTHWESTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF JOHN.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 1100 AM PDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOHN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 24.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.0 WEST OR ABOUT 50 MILES...
80 KM...WEST-NORTHWEST OF LA PAZ MEXICO AND ABOUT 100 MILES...160
KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF LORETO MEXICO.
JOHN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. ON THIS
TRACK THE CENTER OF JOHN SHOULD BE MOVING OVER THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA TODAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE CONTINUE TO DECREASE AND ARE NEAR 75
MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THESE WINDS ARE CONFINED TO A
SMALL AREA NEAR THE CENTER. JOHN IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. FURTHER WEAKENING IS LIKELY AS THE HURRICANE
INTERACTS WITH LAND.
JOHN IS A SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985 MB...29.09 INCHES.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW NEAR THE PATH OF THE CENTER OF
THE HURRICANE.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM
TOTALS UP TO 18 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
BAJA PENINSULA. THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO FROM LA CRUZ TO GUAYMAS
COULD SEE 3 TO 6 INCHES OF RAIN WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 10
INCHES. THESE AMOUNTS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUDSLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
REPEATING THE 1100 AM PDT POSITION...24.6 N...111.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
200 PM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA
9 a.m. Rain has now started in Santa Rosalia, approximately 300 miles south of San Felipe. Rain is expected to reach San Diego by Monday. Based on current progress of the hurricane we can expect first rains in San Felipe on Sunday with intensification on Monday.
